Only 3 Countries Have Become More Likely To Default This Year

In our prior post we highlighted year to date country stock market returns.  Below we highlight the change in sovereign debt default risk for 50 countries.  For each country, we show where its 5-year CDS (credit default swaps) currently stands and where it was at the start of the year.  Prices are in basis points.  

As shown, just 3 of the 50 countries have seen default risk increase in 2012 — Portugal, Greece and Spain.  Spain is the main problem, with default risk now up 32.31% year to date.

Norway, Switzerland, the US and Sweden have seen huge drops in default risk so far this year.  Norway now has the lowest default risk of any country at 22.05 bps, followed by the US at 29.6 bps.  It’s been a while since US CDS has been below 30.

country cds default risk

Photo: Bespoke Investment Group

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