Only 10% Chance Palin Booted As McCain VP, Intrade Says

Online prediction market Intrade has begun taking bets on whether Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as John McCain’s choice for Vice President. Early this morning, the contract was trading at levels that indicated an 18% likelihood of the event, but the odds have since dropped to 9.5%. Intrade isn’t providing info on contract volumes.

For the McCain campaign to withdraw Palin as its pick would require an enormous scandal, as doing so would make the campaign look incompetent and almost certainly doom McCain’s presidential bid.

Reaction to some of the supposed Palin “scandals” that have surfaced so far are overblown. More potentially damaging is the fact that the McCain campaign appears to have done little due diligence on Palin prior to the nomination and that McCain only chose her after his two top picks were shouted down

Stay tuned…

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