Veronis Suhler’s latest media-business bible predicts that U.S. online advertising will hit $62 billion in 2011, slightly more than the $60 billion newspapers are expected to take in that year, the FT says. That online advertising will surpass newspapers is not surprising. What is surprising is that newspapers are still expected to haul in that much in 2011.
The key point for newspaper folks, of course, is that online advertising at newspaper sites will constitute only a tiny fraction of the $62 billion in online advertising. At some point, the $60 billion pie that the newspaper industry now gets to eat all by itself will stop growing and then start to shrink, and the tiny piece of the online pie owned by newspaper sites won’t make up the difference. (And subscriptions won’t, either).