Photo: Flickr Scott Eckert
US futures are lower once again this morning (despite the vaguely positive move in Europe), but it’s worth stepping back and looking at the last two days.
Both Monday and Tuesday saw super-steep declines in the pre-market, only to be followed by fairly bullish turnarounds. Despite the “uncertainty,” the market is having a hard time breaking.
A look at sentiment and positioning among top investors might be a clue. BofA/ML latest survey of Fund Managers came out yesterday, and lead off with this insightful comment regarding investor positioning:The September Fund Manager Survey indicates investors are pricing in a banking crisis focused on Europe, but not a global economic crisis; risk appetite seems to be at rock-bottom and our cash rule gives a “buy” signal. Markets would rally on better-than-expected policy initiatives but investors are struggling to see what these could comprise such are the problems facing Europe at this point. If the economic backdrop were to deteriorate further, EM stocks and the commodities complex look the most vulnerable.
Perhaps it’s this phenomenon that’s making the recent bounces so easy.
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