Trillions of dollars in Treasurys are set to flood the US investment landscape over the next five years, setting up a reckoning in one of the world’s biggest markets.
Even in a best case scenario, it will result in a $US1 trillion shortfall in bond demand that will need to be absorbed to maintain harmony, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch,
That means someone has to step up.
But who? Not the foreign private investors who have helped bridge the gap over the past two years. Demand from them is likely to dry up with both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan set to taper asset purchases, leading to a weaker dollar, according to BAML.
Instead, the firm has identified two groups that will be looked upon to fill the supply-and-demand chasm that will form. And they fall outside of price-insensitive buyers like domestic banks and the Fed that have previously been able to soften the blow.
- Domestic pensions — The post-election landscape of higher rates has already helped these plans, which are price-sensitive and therefore a reasonable source of demand, BAML says [INDENT-PLACEHOLDER #0]
- Mutual funds — An uptick in demand would need to stem from a risk-asset shock that spurs outflows from stock funds into bonds, BAML says [INDENT-PLACEHOLDER #1]