Below is a look at the Win Probability for the Miami Heat in game six of the NBA Finals as calculated by Betting Market Analytics. The graph looks at the chances of the Heat winning the game at any given moment and it is amazing how much it fluctuated in the fourth quarter and in overtime.
With 3:31 left in the fourth quarter, the Heat had a 3-point lead and Dwyane Wade blocked a Tony Parker jump shot. At that point, the Heat had an 86.8% chance of winning the game.
But after a Spurs run, which culminated with a LeBron James turnover with 28 seconds remaining, the Heat had only a 1.5% chance of winning the game. In other words, with 28 seconds left, the Spurs had a 98.5% chance of winning the championship.
And even before Ray Allen’s three-pointer with five seconds left on the clock, the Spurs still had a 93.9% chance of winning. But Allen hit the big shot and Parker missed a jumper at the buzzer and all of a sudden the Heat were back in control.
Data via Betting Market Analytics
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