Did you know that G20 finance ministers are meeting in Paris this weekend?
As Citi’s Steven Englander notes, it’s received much less attention than usual, and with inattention comes risk.
On the cusp of this week’s meeting, there seems to be unusually light focus on the gathering of G20 finance officials. As we earlier noted, market interest in the multi-lateral meetings typically begins to ramp up slightly more than a week prior to the event, hitting a peak about two days before the actual meeting. We measure the intensity of market focus by summing up the number of hits for ‘G20’ on a day-to-day basis in major business publications and at present there have been fewer mentions than at any point since the first G20 meeting in 2008 (in the current format, see Figure 5). No doubt this is partly a reflection of the fact that the G20 has rarely marked a turning point for USD, but light focus still brings risks. It raises the risk for a market moving surprise if authorities rhetoric on exchange rates shifts more than anticipated. We do not view the probability of such an outcome as high, but the market impact could be unusually pronounced.
This chart measuring G20 media mentions is pretty fantastic:
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