It’s been something of a mixed-bag in terms of lead-up to tomorrow’s big jobs report.
Challenger said layoffs in August were down. ADP says hiring was down, too. Today’s initial claims report was OK, and now Gallup is saying underemployment jumped in August.
In general, Gallup is forecasting a mediocre number tomorrow:
…Wednesday’s ADP report suggests private-sector employment declined last month. Similarly, Gallup’s underemployment measure and its unemployment rate show the job situation worsening. Gallup modelling suggests it is likely that the U.S. unemployment rate will increase to between 9.6% and 9.8% when the government reports the August numbers on Friday.
Worse yet, Gallup’s job data show that 28% of Americans aged 18 to 29, 24% of those with no college education, and 22% of women were underemployed in August. This is not good news for retailers hoping that Christmas holiday sales will be better than those of back-to-school, or for politicians hoping to be re-elected in November.