In his analysis of Omnicom’s Q1 2012 earnings today, Deutsche Bank analyst Matt Chesler produced this awesome chart of all the ad agency holding company’s net new business wins—at DDB, TBWA, BBDO, etc.— since 2002, by quarter.It comes with some caveats: These are self-reported numbers, and not GAAP-recognised. They’re not standardized (different agencies define “new business” differently). And they cover billings on media and creative assignments, which generate revenues for agencies on very different scales.
Nonetheless, the chart clearly shows when Omnicom has momentum with new clients and brands and when it does not. Generally, Omnicom’s agencies need to win $1 billion in new account billings per quarter, it would seem. A blowout quarter sees the needle move $2 billion or more in new business.
Check out the period of the recession, from Q4 2007 through Q4 2008. That’s a frightening drought of new client action.
As for Q1, Omnicom brought in wins from GlaxoSmithKline ($160 million at TBWA Worldwide), Time Warner Cable ($50 million digital at OMD) and VMware ($20 million global media at PHD). Offsetting losses included Etihad Airways ($160 million global media from OMD), Southwest Airlines ($100 million creative from GSD&M) and Rent-A-centre ($30 million media also from OMD).
Is it just me or does Omnicom’s world look a little more volatile than it used to? (Click to enlarge.)
Photo: Deutsche Bank
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