OMG! TrimTabs Doesn't Think Today's Jobs Report Was Wildly Off The Mark

TrimTabs is the research firm that ALWAYS comes out and slams the BLS reports for being too rosy in their assumptions.

Well, maybe they realise that they have to throw some curveballs from time to time just to keep us guessing, because today they actually are singing a different tune.

Even they say it’s unusual.

Here’s the announcement:


In an unusual occurrence, TrimTabs February employment estimate, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, was nearly equal to the Bureau of labour Statistics (BLS) estimate.  While TrimTabs estimated the U.S. economy shed 30,000 jobs in February, the BLS reported the U.S. economy lost 36,000 jobs. 

February’s job losses demonstrate that while the labour market is still weak, monthly job losses are steadily declining.  In fact, we believe the U.S. economy will add jobs in March as the U.S. government begins to hire an estimated 1.2 million temporary census workers in the next three months. 

A comparison of TrimTabs’ real-time withholding tax based employment results versus the BLS’ preliminary and revised results from January 2009 through February 2010 are summarized in the following table:


Source: TrimTabs Investment Research – and Bureau of labour Statistics –


Over the past twelve months, TrimTabs results show that the economy shed 3.9 million jobs while the BLS revised estimates show that the economy shed 3.3 million jobs, a difference of 600,000.  A discussion of the reasons for the difference will be presented in next week’s TrimTabs Weekly Macro Analysis.

 Several other employment related statistics support Trimtabs’ conclusion that the labour market is slowly improving:

·        Real-Time tax withholding data shows that February wages and salaries grew an adjusted 0.7% y-o-y, the first positive gain since November 2008.  We believe wages and salaries increased due to Wall Street bonuses and an increase in hourly wages. 

·        The Monster Employment Index gained 10 points in February, the largest monthly gain since January 2004.

·        The TrimTabs Online Jobs Index gained 4.8% in February.

·        Advanced Data Processing reported a job loss of 20,000.

·        Weekly unemployment claims declined to 469,000 from 498,000 in the previous week. 

·        In February, a whopping 11.4 million people were collecting some form of unemployment insurance, up 25.9%, from 9.0 million in November.

 For a complete analysis of the current employment situation and economic conditions, refer to TrimTabs Weekly Macro Analysis published this coming Tuesday, March 9, 2010.

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