Oil Prices – Daily Outlook October 14

Oil prices changed direction and fell yesterday, but currently crude oil prices are traded slightly up. Today, U.S. Federal Budget Balance will be published, the U.S. retail sales and the Euro Area CPI. The G20 meeting will be held this weekend.

 On Thursday, October 13th oil price (WTI) slightly fell by 1.25% to $84.23/b; Brent also subtracted 0.26% off its value and settled at $112.15/b; during October WTI l rose by 2.88% and Brent by 6.38%.

The premium of Brent over WTI sharply inclined on Thursday to $27.92. During October the premium sharply inclined by 18.56%.

On Today’s Agenda:

U.S. Retail Sales Report: during August, the gasoline stations sales rose by 0.3% in August compared with July 2011, and were 20.8% above sales in August 2010; this report could indicate the changes in U.S demand for gasoline (see here my review of the recent report).

G20 Meeting: in this meeting the financial ministers of the G20 countries will discuss the current European debt crisis and the global economic slowdown.

Oil Stockpiles Fell by 1.4 mbbl

According to the recent EIA report, U.S. oil stockpiles slightly declined last week by 1.4 million barrels to reach 1,769.1 million barrels.

 NG Storage Increased by 112 Bcf

The NG storage (Billion Cubic Feet) inclined for last week by 112 Bcf to 3,521 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states; the current NG storage is 2.0% above the 5-year average. 

Forex Market and Crude Oil Prices – October

The AUD/USD  slightly inclined on Thursday by 0.33%. Furthermore, the USD slightly depreciated against the YEN and GBP. The speculation around the European crisis continues to affect not only the forex markets but also the commodities market including crude oil. If the USD will depreciate against the risk currencies as it did during October, this trend may also push oil prices up.

 Oil Prices Outlook and Analysis:

Oil prices continue to seek direction but they do present a moderate upward trend as do other major commodities including gold and silver. I still speculate that WTI will revolve around $83-$88 mark and Brent will be around $108-$113 during the week.   

For further reading:

Weekly Outlook for October 10-14

Natural gas prices outlook for October 2011


Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.


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