Oil has been one of the biggest stories of the past year.
Many economists immediately pointed out that lower oil prices would be good news for the American consumer: lower oil means lower gas, and lower gas means more disposable income. And that means people can save some extra cash, or spend it on a few extra nights out at Chipotle.
However, there’s quite a different story for those Americans living in oil-intensive states.
In a recent slide-deck to clients, Renaissance Macro Research’s head of economics Neil Dutta shared a chart comparing the payroll performances in the ten states where oil and gas extraction is the highest as a share of total nonfarm employment to the other forty.
And the divergence is glaring.
“The decline in oil prices has rotated growth away from energy-producing states to energy-consuming ones,” writes Dutta. “Over the last six months, energy intensive states have seen no growth in payrolls on average while non-energy intensive states saw growth of 0.14% per month.“
Check out the chart below.