Oil prices finished yesterday with moderate rises for the second straight day. Last night the French and German leaders reached an agreement over the Greek debt bailout. Today on the agenda: Ben Bernanke will give a speech; the EIA will publish its weekly report on natural gas market.
Here’s a short analysis and outlook of the oil market for today, July 21st:
On Wednesday, July 20th oil price (WTI) rose by 0.67% to $98.14/b; during July WTI inclined by 2.98%.
Brent on the other hand fell 0.19% to $117.95/b; during July Brent rose by 5.59%.
The premium of Brent over WTI l remains at the $20-$22 mart. On Wednesday July 20th it reached $19.81/b; during July this premium rose by 20.72%, mainly because Brent rose while WTI nearly didn’t change.
US Petroleum stocks rose again last week
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration the U.S. oil stocks rose last week by 3.8 million barrels, and reached 1,800 million barrels – the highest stockpiles since February 4th, 2011 (See here the recent petroleum report).
The chart below shows the upward trend since the end of April of oil stocks on the one hand, and the downward trend of WTI on the other.
US Home sales slightly fell in June 2011
Yesterday the Association of Realtors published the US existing home sales report for June 2011.
According to the report, the number of US existing home sales moderately fell by 0.8% to an annual rate of 4.77 million home sales.
Historically, the news of the US existing home sales had a positive lagged effect on oil prices: according to Roache et. al (2008) as the existing home sales rise, oil price rises the following day. This news might affect today’s trade and pull oil prices moderately down.
Oil outlook and analysis:
Oil prices start to pick up as they have inclined in the past couple of days, but there is still no clear direction for oil prices and in the short term, they are likely to remain near $95-$98 for WTI and $117-$118 for Brent.
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Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.