Oil prices broke above $70 today, and managed to stay above, closing at $70.01. The dollar sank today, and stock market grew. Throughout the rally, that’s been a part of the story.
Where does it go from here? Higher. Investors are anticipating refineries will request more oil as we head into the driving season. And more people are looking for demand to rebound in a few months:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Month after month of declining global oil demand appears to have bottomed out thanks to an improving world economy, the U.S. government’s top energy forecasting agency said on Tuesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2009 demand forecast by 10,000 barrels per day in its June outlook, the first time since September that it has increased the demand estimate in its rolling monthly forecast.
World demand is now expected to top 83.68 million bpd this year, up from 83.67 million bpd forecast in May. Demand, however, is still expected to be well below 2008 levels when oil use topped 85.43 million bpd.
“The rate of consumption decline is expected to moderate later in the year,” said the EIA, as overall demand in 2009 is still expected to fall by nearly 3 per cent from last year.
Here’s the Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates (API is at 4:30, EIA is tomorrow):
Crude oil stocks up 800,000 barrels
Gasoline stocks up 1.1 million barrels
Distillates stocks up 1.1 million barrels
Refinery utilization or run rate up 0.3 percentage point to 86.6%
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