The national polls aren’t pretty for Obama, but the President can hang his hat on the fact that in some key swing states, he’s still holding onto a lead.
Most notably, the consensus is that he’s still winning in Ohio, a state widely seen as the big enchilada. No Republican has ever won without Ohio (though Mitt Romney does have a path if Paul Ryan helps him steal Wisconsin).
So why is Ohio such a strong state for Obama?
New state-by-state unemployment data came out today, and so we can update this chart of Ohio’s unemployment rate divided by the national unemployment rate.
For pretty much the entire decade going into Obama’s Presidency, Ohio saw its unemployment rate steadily worsen against the rest of the nation.
While the trend started pre-Obama, Ohio has been a strong outperformer, with its unemployment rate dropping nicely below the national average.
If Obama hangs on, and wins the state, despite a weak national picture, this chart will be why.
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