LONDON — On Wednesday afternoon, Theresa May will ask MPs to vote in favour of a motion proposing a general election to be held on June 8, just over six weeks’ time.
The prime minister had previously insisted that the next general election would be held in 2020, but changed course, saying she had “reluctantly” changed her mind on the issue recently.
So who are betting markets backing?
Betting exchange Betfair said on Wednesday that the Conservatives have been “heavily backed” since May called for an election on Tuesday morning.
Here is how Betfair is pricing the market on Wednesday at midday:
UK Next General Election — Overall majority odds
- Conservative Majority — 1.19 (2/11)
- No Overall Majority — 6.8 (6/1)
- Labour Majority — 50 (49/1)
- Any Other Majority — 300 (299/1)
UK Next General Election — Most seats
- Conservative — 1.08 (1/12 or a 93% chance)
- Labour — 16.5 — (16/1 or a 6% chance)
- Liberal Democrats — 55 (54/1)
- Any Other — 800 (799/1)
- UKIP — 1000 (999/1)
- Any Other — 300 (299/1)
Figures above are shown in decimal odds, which work by multiplying your stake by the decimal shown and that is how much you will receive in winnings, including your stake. For example, if you bet £1 at odds of 1.08 and you will receive £1.08, stake included.
Betfair spokesperson Naomi Totten said: “The Conservatives were already odds-on to win most seats prior to Theresa May’s announcement and are now trading with a 93% chance of doing so. A Tory majority win had also been trading at 4/5 early Tuesday morning, implying a 57% chance, until they were backed into a low of 1/8 after the election was called, giving the blue party an implied 89% likelihood of winning an overall majority.””Despite the Liberal Democrats still being around a 50/1 shot, a quarter of all bets placed on the Most
“Despite the Liberal Democrats still being around a 50/1 shot, a quarter of all bets placed on the Most Seats markets have been on Tim Farron’s party, with punters perhaps expecting their position as the only anti-Brexit party to pay off in some fashion,” she added.
Polling expert John Curtice warned on Wednesday that May’s strategy is “not risk-free.” He said that she is likely to win, but her attempt to win by a landslide may hit significant roadblocks in the form of the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and the SNP.
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