Odds Of A Depression Now 25%

About a month ago, we checked in on Intrade for the odds of the US hitting a depression in 2009. At the time, that contract was trading at 15%. Today: 25%. Put another way, the odds of a depression have jumped two thirds in the last month. The line between a recession and a depression isn’t brightly drawn. We tend to think of soup lines and riots in Washington. For their more objective measure, they’re looking for a GDP decline of 10% or more.

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