Philly Fed Index Jumps To 5.7, But The Details Are Ugly

michael vick of the philadelphia eagles sitting on the bench

Photo: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia just released its closely watched Business Outlook Survey.The headline number jumped to 5.7.

Economists were expecting a reading of 1.0, up from September’s reading of -0.9.

A reading above 0 signals expansion.

However, a closer look at the details is a bit sobering.

The positive number seems to be largely driven by higher prices paid and prices received.

The employment and orders components of the report were negative. 

From the report:

The October Business Outlook Survey sug‐ gests that activity among the region’s manu‐ facturing sector has steadied, following sev‐ eral months of reported declines. However, firms reported flat new orders and ship‐ ments and declines in employment. Prices for firms’ manufactured goods were mod‐ erately higher this month, while increases in input prices were more widespread. The future activity index decreased this month but remained positive, and firms are still gen‐ erally optimistic regarding growth over the next six months.

Here’s a breakdown.

philly fed

Photo: Philly Fed

Here’s a longer term look at the index courtesy of the Philly Fed:

philly fed

Photo: Philly Fed

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