The number: This is clearly a good jobs report, considering where we’ve been. 151K new jobs in October is way ahead of expectations, which were in the 60-65K range.
Also, importantly, September and August come in way better than expectations.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from -57,000 to -1,000, and the change for September was revised from -95,000 to -41,000.
The market liked the number too… stocks went positive on the news.
This is crucial: There were almost no job cuts at the public sector level.
A bit of bad news: The duration of unemployed jumped. Those who are structurally locked out aren’t seeing any improvement.
The full announcement is here.
Background: There are basically three things to think about in this report. One is obviously the headline unemployment number, which is expected to come in at 9.6K. Then there’s headline job creation, and analysts are looking for 60-65K (though the real range is huge, with some expecting a number around 100K). And perhaps most importantly, the focus will be intensely on public sector job losses. Last month private payrolls were OK, but the public sector was crushing, as state and local governments continue to bleed. Watch this dynamic closely.