October Existing Home Sales Nail Expectations At 4.43 Million Rate

The number:

Annualized existing home sales of 4.43 million is basically right on the button with regard to expectations.

That’s a 2.2% slip from September.

Inventory stands at over 10 months.

Background: This number has been historically dismal for months and months now, and for this month, analysts are expecting sales at an annualized 4.42 million rate, which is actually down from September’s 4.53 million rate.

Here’s what economist Tom Lawler, writing for Calculated Risk, predicts:

Based on the data I have seen so far, I estimate that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of around 4.46 million homes, down 1.5% from September’s pace, and down 25.4% from last October’s “tax-credit-goosed” pace. The YOY decline in unadjusted sales will be larger than that for seasonally adjusted sales for “calendar” reasons (including the fact that this October had one fewer business day than last October).

The local realtor/MLS inventory numbers I’ve seen have on aggregate been broadly consistent with the 3.2% national drop in active listings from September to October on realtor.com, though the local realtor numbers suggest that the NAR’s estimate may show a somewhat greater decline – perhaps closer to -3.7%(The NAR does not use national listings, but instead uses listings from its sample of local MLS/associations/boards).

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