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Good news on the trade front today: The September trade deficit was revised lower, and that will help Q3 numbers get revised upward.But there was also bad news on the trade front today: The Chinese trade surplus came in way ahead of expectations, and that was for October, which means Q4.
Given that trade numbers are zero-sum (you may have heard…) that means it’s likely that the trade deficit in the US is already widening in October.
As Calculated Risk points out, higher oil prices also will weigh on the trade deficit in October, so these are two headwinds for GDP.
On other note on GDP. Yesterday, September wholesale inventories showed a bigger than expected jump. That also will push the Q3 GDP revisions higher, but it also makes a good Q4 number that much more challenging.
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