We’re tracking three sources of “odds” on the US Presidential election:
- Nate Silver’s aggregate poll forecast
- Intrade’s prediction market
- Betfair’s prediction market
President Obama’s odds of winning the election have surged to new highs on the latter two over the past week and moved back toward recent highs on the third.
First, Nate Silver of the New York Times currently gives Obama a 78% chance of reelection, close to the 80% peak just after the convention:
Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have surged since video surfaced last week of Mitt Romney dissing half the country in remarks at a private fundraiser and now stand at 73%:
And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have continued to trend higher and are now around 80%:
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