Most former Supreme Court attorneys and clerks believe that the individual mandate to buy health insurance — the signature provision of President Barack Obama‘s Affordable Care Act — will soon be struck down as unconstitutional by the high court.That’s according to a joint poll by the American Action Forum, centre Forward and Purple Strategies. An astounding 57 per cent of clerks and attorneys polled now think that the mandate will be ruled unconstitutional. That’s up from just 35 per cent in March, before the court held oral arguments on the case.
Photo: Purple Strategies
Here’s what one respondent told Purple Strategies:
“I feel like a dope, because I was one of those who predicted that the Court would uphold the statute by a lopsided majority…it now appears pretty likely that this prediction was way off.”
Why the change? The oral arguments in late March had a lot to do with it. In this poll, 70 per cent of respondents thought the justices were more sceptical than they expected. 30 per cent said it was about what they expected, and no one thought it was less sceptical than expected.
The insiders’ sudden scepticism falls in line with those of some lawyers and constitutional scholars who began to have doubts after the oral arguments. Ilya Shapiro, a senior fellow in constitutional studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, upped his unconstitutional prediction from 55 per cent likely before the hearings to 65 per cent likely after the hearings.
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