The odds on Intrade Thursday morning are going appropriately nuts ahead of the Supreme Court’s decision on the Affordable Care Act, which is expected in just more than an hour.
At 8:40 a.m., it was down to a 66.2 per cent chance that the Supreme Court would rule the individual mandate unconstitutional. At 8:45, it jumped back up to a 72.9 per cent chance. At 8:50, back down to 68.5. At 8:53, back to 71 per cent.
Here’s just the last HOUR of trading:
The last half hour is even more volatile.
About 16 hours ago, the odds stood at 75.5 per cent of the mandate being ruled unconstitutional.
Carl Wolfenden, the exchange operations manager at Intrade, emailed Business Insider this morning. He said that such volatility can be expected with something on which people are basically making educated guesses:
“For something like a Supreme Court case it’s very possible the market could turn,” Wolfenden said. “Aside from the oral arguments there are really no other clues to how things may go, making it essentially an educated guess as to what the court will decide.”
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