Barack Obama has his largest lead yet over the hypothetical Republican candidates in a new Gallup poll released Monday. It’s a poll that is chock full of good news for the president.In the survey of registered voters, 49 per cent would vote for Obama today. On the other side, 45 per cent would vote for Mitt Romney. And Rick Santorum’s buzz appears to be ever-fading: Obama has an 8-percentage point lead over him, and he gets above the 50-per cent threshold in that theoretical matchup.
Let’s look at the differences among this poll and the last few. It’s basically a 180 from February’s poll, which had Romney with a 4-percentage point lead. And it’s Obama’s first lead since December, when he held a 50 per cent to 48 per cent advantage over the likely GOP nominee.
Also, in February’s poll, Obama was virtually tied with Santorum, leading 49 per cent to 48 per cent.
Three other points of good news for Obama: First, he holds an even higher statistical advantage over both Romney and Santorum among Independents. He leads Romney 48 per cent to 40, and Santorum by an insurmountable 16 percentage points.
Secondly, Obama holds a commanding lead in Gallup’s pronounced 12 swing states, leading Romney by 9 percentage points in those 12 states. This is somewhat misleading: It generalizes the results from the 12 states together, and it doesn’t really account for the fact that, in Obama’s case, states like Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin aren’t really up for grabs. He holds huge leads in all of those states, polls have shown.
However, Obama did lead the three key swing states of Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released last week.
And one last piece of good news for Obama: He’s killing it with women voters, especially those under 50. He beats Romney 2-to-1 in that race (60 per cent to 30 per cent) after holding a slim single-digit lead in that category in the last Gallup poll.
“The momentum in the 2012 U.S. presidential election appears to be going in Obama’s favour; he now enjoys his best positioning against likely Republican nominee Romney nationally and in key swing states to this point in the campaign,” Gallup pollster Jeffrey M. Jones writes.
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