It’s been a dismal summer for the stock market, but for those who have gone long Barack Obama on Intrade, it’s been even worse. Shares of the contract predicting an Obama presidential victory are down 10 points (16%) since peaking in the middle of July.
Obama’s fortunes have waned after John McCain’s surprise pick of Sarah Palin for his running mate and the Republican convention. Both Gallup and Rasmussen polls now show McCain leading Obama, and a USA Today/Gallup poll shows McCain with a 10 point lead.
Of course, Obama supporters needn’t be too worried. The uptick in McCain’s support in these polls is probably just a temporary bounce. As for McCain’s Palin pick, while initital signs suggest that it has helped his candidacy, the final verdict will hinge both on whether the Alaska governor can hold her own against Joe Biden in the vice presidential debate and whether the media is able to dig up any more dirt on her.
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