Both national and swing-state polls are beginning to tighten in the presidential race between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. It’s a signal that an expected Romney bump is starting to take shape after his consensus win in the first presidential debate on Wednesday. Polls that track both national and swing state voting have shown nothing but bad news for the president over the last couple of days.
Here’s a sampling of the national polls:
- Gallup: Romney is starting to close in on Obama, trailing by only 3 points in the seven-day rolling average. And that average only reflects two days of surveys post-debate, so the full effect won’t be known until next Wednesday.
- Rasmussen: Rasmussen has had wild swings and tends to be Republican-leaning this election, but Romney holds a 2-point advantage here.
- Reuters/Ipsos: Here, the race has tightened from a 6-point Obama lead pre-debate to only a 2-point lead on Friday. But Saturday didn’t provide any further bounce for Romney in the online survey.
And in swing states:
- Florida: Two polls — from Rasmussen and We Ask America — found Romney in the lead here on Friday by 2 and 3 points, respectively. Both polling firms tend to lean Republican.
- Virginia: The same two firms — again, leaning Republican — found Romney with 1- and 3-point leads, respectively.
- Colorado: After Obama slipped up in the debate at the University of Denver, he saw a big, 7-point swing in this state in a Gravis Marketing survey. Romney now leads 49-46, after trailing 50-46 pre-debate.
- Wisconsin: This is the big one that should worry Obama. The Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found that Obama’s lead had tightened from 7 points in its last survey to just 2 points post-debate. The reason for that is almost exclusively debate-related — 61 per cent of Wisconsin voters thought Romney won the debate, compared with just 25 per cent who saw Obama winning.
A potential silver lining for Obama: Most of these polls don’t measure the potential bounce-back he could have received from good news on Friday — that the 7.8 per cent unemployment rate is the lowest mark since he took office.
Not sure how to make sense of all the polls? Watch below:
Produced by Daniel Goodman
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