Rasmussen released the first definitive Florida poll of the general election today, and it shows Mitt Romney on top by a pretty statistically insignificant single percentage point. But the swing is significant: Romney has gained 4 points there on Obama in less than a month. He now leads 46 per cent to 45 per cent.
It also marks the first lead for Romney there in seven polls, according to this Real Clear Politics survey. In the April 6 Rasmussen poll, he trailed Obama 47 per cent to 44 per cent.
As we pointed out yesterday in analysing Karl Rove’s electoral map, Florida is pretty much a must-win for Romney. It’s the most logical path for him to the White House. If Obama wins Florida, Romney could win Ohio AND Pennsylvania and still very plausibly lose the election.
The other questions: whether this will hold and if it marks a major shift because of the general election. Obama led each of the last seven polls against Romney — by as much as 8 points — but this is the first measured when we’ve really shifted to general election mode.
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