Can you believe it? Only six months until you’ll be voting for our current president or our next president.
Better question: Can you believe there’s still six months to go?
This is what we think is most likely to happen. It doesn’t look good for Romney:
As always, the election is going to come down to a handful of swing states. But there’s an important thing to note from our analysis of the swing state polls released today: Those are comprehensive and not confined to individual states.
Let’s start with Romney: Of the toss-ups, he wins Arizona, Iowa, Missouri and the all-important Florida.
Now Obama: He wins Colorado, New Hampshire and the biggies: North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
This is far from over. Romney has a major chance to make inroads with crucial voting blocs, and he’s doing well with Independents and voters in general that trust him more on the economy.
On some states, we’re being generous, though there is a limited sample of polling. For example, Romney trails Obama by 3 points in the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls in Iowa, but the last polls there were in February. Iowa has been split in the last two elections.
But many important swing states, well, swing Obama. In Virginia, he’s up an average of 3.2 points since March. In Ohio, he’s up a decent amount in every April poll. In North Carolina, he’s up just more than 2 points per every poll in April. And RCP doesn’t even list Pennsylvania as a toss-up — Obama was up 8 points there in the recent Quinnipiac swing states poll. Florida is also extremely close, and it’s a state Romney basically needs to win to have any shot at all in November.
Now, here’s how Romney wins, most plausibly. He takes Florida. He takes North Carolina and Virginia back. And he takes Ohio. That can be done, but Romney has work to do to shift all of those states. There is no room for error.
And here’s the Obama LANDSLIDE, just for kicks.
What has to worry Romney is that this also has a plausible chance of happening.
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