Photo: Official White House Flickr
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, the two most credible and widely cited polling aggregators online, both have Obama back in the lead in the RCP Average and FiveThirtyEight Forecast, respectively. With FiveThirtyEight, Obama never lost the lead, he just severely diminished it.
But now, RealClearPolitics has Obama back in the lead at 47.1 per cent to Romney’s 47 per cent in their aggregate polling.
It’s slim, but here’s how it breaks down.
Granted, it is a mere 0.1 per cent lead, and the margin of error alone eclipses it many times over, but still, Obama seems to be out of the weeds after the lackluster first debate performance according to RCP’s measurements.
One major point of contention at the moment is Gallup’s observation that Romney has a six point lead among likely voters, down from seven points yesterday. The reservations were raised because no other firm with a daily tracking poll found anything close to that number.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight’s proprietor and mastermind, had an excellent post Thursday on the Gallup numbers and why, in light of the huge disparity between the Gallup’s tracking poll and rivals’ tracking polls, the number is most likely inaccurate.
If Silver is correct — he has a habit of being correct — and Gallup is far off the mark compared to the firm’s competitors, then the RCP average will likely rise as the polling data self-corrects.
Watch the video below to see the candidates’ electoral paths to victory.
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