This May Be The Most Disastrous-Looking Poll For Obama Yet

train, train crash, trainsTrainwreck.

Photo: Flickr / Ruin Raider

The new CBS/New York Times poll out last evening is, on the surface, the biggest disaster for the Barack Obama campaign at this point in the 2012 election. Down overall? Check. Voters frustrated with the economy and how things are going? Check. Gay marriage endorsement backfire? Check. 

But this might be the worst underlier of all: Obama is even losing among women.

Now, before we delve deeper, we should point out the funky methodology that has some — ranging on the spectrum from the Obama campaign to the National Journal — questioning how the results hold up.

This is a “panel-back” survey — the same voters were polled this time as were polled in mid-April. Only 562 of the original 856 registered voters re-responded to the poll this time around. 

Still, the poll oversamples Democrats — among registered voters, the sample pool is composed of 36 per cent Democrats, 34 per cent Independents and 30 per cent Republicans. 

Romney’s overall lead stands at 46 per cent to 43 per cent. Last month, the two candidates were deadlocked. There are a few underliers that spell disaster for Barack Obama. 

First is the women vote. What the heck happened here? Last month, Obama led among women by 6 percentage points. In this poll, he’s trailing Romney by 2 points in the women’s vote. It’s an even bigger shift when you consider other surveys, like last month’s CNN poll that found Obama destroying Romney among women by 16 points

Obama Romney poll

Photo: CBS/NYT poll

Independents also continue to flock to Mitt Romney. He’s up in that category by 7 points, though it’s worth noting that Obama captures the self-described “moderate” vote by 11 points. 

And this is the third poll that shows the President’s gay marriage endorsement is causing some backlash with voters. This time, voters go beyond just saying they are less likely to vote for him — 22 per cent are less likely, vs. 14 per cent more likely. 

But the kicker: Most voters believe that Obama’s endorsement came about for political reasons. This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense and lines up in direct contrast with the fact that more people are now less likely to vote for him. Still, even Democrats are suspicious.

Obama Romney poll

Photo: CBS/NYT poll

We’ve reached out to CBS for a little more comment on the methodology, but what a disaster on the surface. 

And now the Obama campaign is claiming the poll is “biased.” >>

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