Sure, things look bleak now. But, when it turns around, guess who is gonna get the credit?
Bloomberg: When it comes to the U.S. stock market, Barack Obama has time on his side.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may be on the cusp of a rally by Inauguration Day in January, based on the speed of its tumble from last year’s peak and the time it took stocks to gain before recessions ended in 1975, 1982 and 1991, data compiled by Bloomberg show. This year’s plunge in stocks suggests that equity investors anticipate an economic contraction as severe as the one that began under Richard Nixon that will end in July.
U.S. stocks yesterday posted the biggest presidential Election Day increase since 1984 before Democratic nominee Obama beat Republican John McCain. The Illinois senator may benefit from the economic cycle after more than $6 trillion was erased from U.S. equities this year by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. stocks fell today.
“The markets will turn before we know the economic recovery is going on,” said Robert Weissenstein, who oversees $125 billion as chief investment officer for the Americas at Credit Suisse Group AG’s private banking unit in New York. “The new president won’t get tagged for the problems that exist. If things get better, they were there. That’s politics. The general public will give credit to the new guy.”
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