The Quinnipiac polling institute today released three anticipated polls from the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It’s the institute’s first measure of swing states since Mitt Romney has become the presumptive Republican nominee.At first glance, it doesn’t appear to show anything but a pretty tight race in Florida and Ohio, and a comfortable Obama lead in Pennsylvania. But looking deeper — and the Huffington Post’s Mark Blumenthal was the first to point this out — Obama is actually in much BETTER SHAPE than he was at this point in 2008 against John McCain.
Here’s this year:
Obama trails by 1 per cent in Florida, leads by 2 in Ohio and stands a comfortable 8 points up on Romney in Pennsylvania.
On one hand, these are warning signs for Obama. His lead on Romney is down from March — from 7 points in Florida and 6 points in Ohio. (He’s actually widened his lead in Pennsylvania, from 3 to 8 points.)
“Gov. Mitt Romney has closed President Barack Obama’s leads in Ohio and Florida to the point that those two states are now essentially tied, a turnaround from the end of March when the president enjoyed leads in those key states,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
But now, on the other hand, let’s take a look at 2008.
Keep in mind that at this point in 2008, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were still battling for the nomination.
Obama had the same comfortable lead in Pennsylvania over McCain. But he actually trailed McCain by a point in both Ohio and Florida. Of course, he ended up winning both of those states. What’s more — in the Huffington Post’s aggregate of polls four years ago, McCain led by 5.5 points over Obama in June after Obama had wrapped up the nomination.
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