Obama's Dropping On Intrade Again, But Nate Silver Says His Lead Is Increasing

Obama’s odds of winning re-election are now between 60%-70%, according to the three sources we’re tracking:

  • Nate Silver’s aggregate poll forecast
  • Intrade’s prediction market
  • Betfair’s prediction market

Interestingly, though, these sources have diverged in recent days. Intrade and Betfair show Obama’s odds dropping. Nate Silver says they’re increasing.

First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 68% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% two weeks ago.

Nate Silver Obama Odds

Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times


On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have dropped back to 61% from a recent high of 65%.

Intrade election odds

Photo: Intrade


And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have dropped to 65% from 70% last week.

Betfair election odds

Photo: Betfair

Obama’s odds of winning have fallen sharply from their peaks before the first debate. But on both prediction markets, Obama’s “stock” is still considerably higher than it was after the conventions in August.

These “odds,” it’s worth noting, contrast sharply with the nationwide Gallup poll of likely voters, which still shows Romney with a very impressive 6-point lead.  Nate Silver, meanwhile, says focusing on just one poll–especially Gallup–is a recipe for error.

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