The Obama campaign is especially perturbed by this New York Times/CBS poll that came out last evening, as its topline results are pretty disastrous for the President against challenger Mitt Romney.
That’s a clip of Stephanie Cutter, the Obama 2012 campaign’s deputy campaign manager, telling MSNBC’s Chuck Todd on “The Daily Rundown” this morning that the poll is “biased.”
Now, we’ve pointed out some of the questions with the methodology.
First, this is a “panel-back” survey — the same voters were polled this time as were polled in mid-April. Only 562 of the original 856 registered voters re-responded to the poll this time around.
NBC’s First Read this morning also points out some contradictions that don’t quite make sense. For example, Obama’s approval rating in the survey stands at 50 per cent. That’s the highest it’s been since the death of Osama bin Laden. It’s also usually the benchmark for presidents to get re-elected. Yet he trails Romney by 3 points.
“We respect the work the folks at the NYT/CBS do, but there are a lot of contradictions in the results, which simply means we should wait for more data,” reads the post on First Read.
That said, Cutter’s baseless convictions don’t make sense either. Her main gripe is that no one seems to believe that the President’s shift to endorse gay marriage was for the right reasons. Rather overwhelmingly, they think it was for political reasons.
Photo: CBS/NYT poll
“The methodology was significantly biased,” Cutter said. “It is a biased sample.”
Todd pointed out the 3-to-1 margin. That falls outside any margin of error, and it is almost impossible for respected polling organisations like the CBS/NYT combination to screw something up that badly. But Cutter pressed on.
“I don’t want to go through methodology on your show — I think your viewers would get bored by it,” Cutter said. “But they sampled a biased sample, so they re-biased the same sample. I think the results of that poll are pretty flawed.”
Results from that biased sample still showed, however, that 48 per cent of Democrats, even, believed the gay marriage endorsement was for political reasons. And 70 per cent of Independents.
We’ll wait for more polling data. There are some numbers — like the fact that Romney is up with women — that not many people really believe. But calling the poll “biased” goes above and beyond questioning the methodology.
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