Here's The Most Important Post-Convention Bump For Obama That Puts Him In A Great Spot For Re-Election

Barack Obama

AP

President Obama‘s post-convention spike continues, and that’s especially evident — and important — in the steady increase in his approval rating, which is at a 15-month high in the Gallup daily tracking poll. Obama’s approval rating in Gallup now stands at 52 per cent — above the 50 per cent mark that usually nearly ensures re-election. Moreover, his disapproval rating has dropped to just 42 per cent. 

Pre-convention, Obama’s approval-to-disapproval rating stood at 45 per cent to 48 per cent. That means it has swung 13 points during and in the aftermath of the convention. 

The last time Obama was at 52 per cent was during the three-day period of May 23-25, 2011

Obama’s approval rating also jumped to the same 52 per cent mark in Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll, while 47 per cent disapprove. That compares to a 48-52 approval-to-disapproval split the day the convention started. 

It remains to be seen if Obama will see any swing downward from the tepid August jobs report. But for now, it’s looking like the DNC was a lot more successful for its candidate than the RNC was for Mitt Romney

Recall why the 50 per cent threshold is important, per Gallup managing editor Jeffrey M. Jones:

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election — George W. Bush and Harry Truman — won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

In 2004, Bush jumped above 50 per cent around this time, too — he bumped up to 52 per cent the Sept. 3-5, 2004, tracking period, and he stayed above 50 per cent for the rest of the month.

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