As it stands now, if Argentina doesn’t pay a group of hedge fund managers over $US1.3 billion by July 30, the country could go into default.
For the Republic, that means money printing, inflation, and general disaster.
For investors, like Michael Novogratz of Fortress Investments, that means buying, buying, buying.
“If something doesn’t happen and there’s a default we’re going to see a sell-off,” said Novogratz at the CNBC/Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha Conference on Wednesday, “but that’s an opportunity for capital coming in.”
To Novogratz, Argentina follows his macro investing theme of looking at countries that are “so bad, they’re good.” These are countries that could very well be on the road to improvement — he mentioned India (where a recent election brought in a reform government), Japan (still experimenting with “Abenomics”), and Brazil (where President Dilma Rousseff could soon be on the way out).
Argentina fits this bill because, even if it does manage to avoid default, its current regime will be on the way out by 2015.
If it does default, though, everything will hit rock bottom. This was when the group of “vulture” hedge fund managers, who Argentina refuses to pay, bought the country’s sovereign debt.
So if it does default, history repeats itself, and Argentina will set itself up to be “vulture” food yet again.
“We’re long stocks, long bonds, long currency,” said Novogratz. “We’ll know [if the country will default] in two weeks.”