We’ve made it: today is the last jobs report day of the year.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the BLS will release the November employment report, and expectations are for the job market’s gains to continue going strong.
Here’s what Wall Street is looking for, via Bloomberg:
- Nonfarm payrolls: +230,000
- Private payrolls: +225,000
- Unemployment rate: 5.8%
- Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.2%
- Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +2.1%
- Average weekly hours worked: 34.6
In October, nonfarm payrolls grew by 214,000, less than the 235,000 that was expected by Wall Street, though the unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, the lowest since 2008.
But despite last month’s miss relative to expectations, October marked the ninth-straight month of job gains over 200,000, the longest such streak since a 19-month streak that ran from 1993-1995.
And on Friday, Wall Street is expecting the good times to keep rolling for the job market.
In a note to clients ahead of the report, Brian Jones at Societe Generale, who expects nonfarm payrolls grew by 275,000 in November, said, “Our analysis suggests that last month’s readings on hiring, joblessness and wages will support the more upbeat assessment of labour-market conditions expressed by monetary policymakers following their October gathering.”
Jones added that while his forecast is above consensus expectations, a reading in-line with his estimates would not alter his expectation that the Fed keeps interest rates at 0%-0.25% until next June.
Joe LaVorgna at Deutsche Bank expects nonfarm payrolls grew by 250,000 in November, writing in a note to clients ahead of the report that, “There is little evidence to suggest the current pace of job gains will deteriorate anytime soon.”
Meanwhile, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics expects nonfarm payrolls grew by just 180,000 in November owing to the severe weather seen in the northern Midwestern states at the end of the month.
Shepherdson expects, however, that the October report will be revised higher, and expects that down the road, November’s number will also be revised higher.
Since 2009, November payroll gains have had a median upward revision of 71,000 from the first to third estimate.
Holiday hiring patterns will also be a focus for Friday’s number, with Deutsche Bank’s LaVorgna writing in his note that, “Potential distortions to couriers and messengers is one reason November payrolls may surprise to the upside.”
LaVorgna writes that since consumers have shifted towards online shopping, the BLS has had trouble adjusting for the seasonal hiring impact.
Friday’s jobs report also comes after what was an overall solid month for the stock and bond markets, but a complete disaster for the oil market, though it is unlikely any job losses related to oil production declines will show up in Friday’s report.
As always, we will have wall-to-wall live coverage of the jobs report.
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