The headline numbers release this morning from the New York Fed regarding manufacturing in New York were ugly. The survey plunged 27 points to -11.1 thanks to a collapse in new orders.
Other internals slumped as well.
And yet, that wasn’t the whole story. Respondents to the survey were actually much more optimistic about the medium-term (six months) than they were last month.
Bear in mind that each measure uses a diffusion index — i.e., the number represents the difference between respondents who see things getting better and who see things getting worse. Thus, if 70% of respondents see things going up, and 30% see them going down, the index would be at 40.
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