Photo: National Museum of Health and Medicine
Kit Juckes of SocGen has a very useful comment in his latest daily note, relaying the thoughts from a conversation he had with traders, capturing the conventional wisdom of the moment:I hadlunch yesterday with a bunch of old friends/colleagues/acquaintances from the HF/investment/HNW markets. The result was a wide-ranging debate about markets. Everyone wants the yen to weaken (FX folks want to short the yen, equity folks think a weaker yen can let the Nikkei play catch-up). I am on board for the weaker yen for a few weeks, but wondering whether short Nikkei and long USD/JPY isn’t a good trade. Nearly everyone (a single exception, not including me) is bearish of the UK and sterling: most weren’t impressed with the government and alarmed by the spread of QE. Few think the fiscal cliff will de-rail growth and most are 1) relatively optimistic about US growth ,2) want to buy US equities and 3) are worried by how expensive they are.
Welcome to your conventional wisdom. Everyone hates the yen, hates the UK, and is now feeling irelatively good about the US and the Cliff.
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