- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is believed to have suggested he’s willing to halt missile and nuclear tests in exchange for security guarantees.
- An agreement may even include eradicating the nation’s nuclear weapons arsenal.
- Though President Donald Trump took credit for the positive development, the deal may exploit Trump’s temper and rigid diplomacy.
- Kim’s offer could weaken international sanctions by playing the Trump administration against itself.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and a group of South Korean diplomats dined for four hours on Monday night, emerging with a possible peace deal to stop the North’s nuclear weapon and missile programs.
Yet North Korea has a checkered history of adhering to nuclear treaties, and the proposal may exploit Trump’s ire toward Kim, not to mention his administration’s rigid diplomatic stance toward North Korea.
“People are saying, ‘They promised to stop nuclear tests and missile tests,'” Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear-policy expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, told Business Insider. “What I saw was that they promised to stop those tests while they were negotiating with the United States.”
To Lewis, who also publishes Arms Control Wonk, a requirement for direct US involvement in talks “sounds less like a promise to stop and more like a permission slip” to continue testing.
What’s more, he added, Kim’s proposal is poised to significantly weaken economic sanctions that the Trump administration has leveraged against North Korea.
How the offer could help North Korea and undermine Trump, US interests
Trump has also flipped back and forth between rejecting negotiations with North Korea outright to – less frequently – expressing optimism about the possibility, should the nation be open to ridding itself of all intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear warheads, and reactors. (North Korea’s ICBMs are now thought to have the ability to strike US targets.)
Lewis said the Trump administration’s sanctions were indeed painful to North Korea. But he noted that Kim was probably most concerned about ending joint military exercises around the Korean Peninsula between US forces and their allies, such as South Korea and Japan. Such activity heightens tensions and could lead to catastrophic miscalculations, Lewis previously told Business Insider.
“They have always wanted those military exercises shut off, because military exercise is how real wars start – that’s the cover that everybody gives for amassing troops,” Lewis said. “So basically they have to go on alert every time we do them. And we used to do them during the harvest, which was not nice.”
Offering a peace deal could motivate South Korea to stall or cancel the next joint military exercise, which is scheduled for the spring.
“From a North Korean perspective, they’d like to get the cancellation of the exercises. But this also helps them manage their sanctions problem,” Lewis added. “If they’re seen as saying, ‘Look, we’re willing to stop the missile tests, just as soon as the US shows up,’ but then the US doesn’t show up,” then it’s a potentially big win for Kim.
All eyes on the Trump administration
Refusing to sit down with North Korea is a strong possibility, given the Trump administration’s frequent and stern messaging about negotiating with the country. (Officials recently enacted more sanctions against North Korea over the assassination of Kim Jong Nam, who was Kim’s half-brother and possibly an heir to his position.)
But acting tough against Kim’s offer, or simply ignoring it, could backfire.
“If they then do another missile test, how does the sanctions fight play out?” Lewis said. “The South Koreans and the Russians and the Chinese all refuse to back more sanctions because they will say, ‘Well, there’s a standing offer from the North Koreans that you’re not taking.’ … At the end of the day, what they’re really looking at doing is countering the US campaign of pressure.”
China and Russia might also spin a lack of US talks to weaken or ignore existing sanctions, since those countries “don’t really owe us any favours,” Lewis said. Even South Korea may join them as it pushes for an opportunity to make peace with its adversarial neighbour.
“This is generally how the sanctions game is played, and it’s just that the Trump administration is really bad at it,” Lewis said. “The whole point of sanctions is to get pressure on another country to do something.”
He added: “You can’t really convince other countries to go along with you unless you are seen as being reasonable – unless you’re being seen as willing to take the sanctions off in exchange for good behaviour, unless you are seen as trying to reach a diplomatic settlement.”
Trump’s appointees, such as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defence James Mattis, generally “say the right words” to keep the door open to possible negotiations with North Korea, Lewis said, but Trump often undermines their statements with his own. (Lewis said, however, that the president’s statements on Tuesday “were fine for Trump.”)
Regardless, North Korea seems to have thrown a large diplomatic ball into Trump’s court, and the world is waiting to see how the US responds.
This story was updated with new information.
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