Photo: Crowbot, Flickr
As we get ready for the Non-Farm Payrolls report, let’s take a quick look at all the reason to be worried that it might come in weak. Remember, estimates are for 210K, although we’ve predicted a print of 285K.Here are the big worry spots.
- The Philly Fed index employment sub-index, which has a good historical correlation to non-fam payrolls, came in weak.
- The employment sub-indices of both ISMs came in below expectations.
- The NFIB said that small business hiring stalled out in February.
- According to Gallup, the unemployment rate has ticked higher since a month ago.
- ADP came in at just 216K, and that doesn’t include public sector layoffs, which are estimated to be in the 15K range