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At 8:30 AM EST this morning, the Bureau of labour Statistics will release the November Employment Situation report. Economists expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.9 per cent.The consensus estimate for the change in nonfarm payrolls is 85k, with calls ranging from 15k to 145k.
Nomura’s Ellen Zentner is one of the economists on the high end of that range.
“We expect the employment report to be released on Friday, 7 December to show that nonfarm establishments increased their payrolls by 145k net new jobs in November,” wrote Zentner in a recent note. “Our forecast assumes that severe weather reduced payroll employment in November by 45k.”
It’s worth noting that even the BLS will tell you that the margin of error on the NFP report is around 100k.
Zentner’s 145k forecast is still below October’s 171k number. And while her NFP guess is relatively high, the tone of her note is anything but bullish.
“[T]he ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, a global slowdown in growth, and the looming “fiscal cliff” in the US have weighed on hiring decisions.” she writes. “These concerns are unlikely to be alleviated soon. After climbing out of a deep hole following the financial crisis, job growth has stalled around an average 150k per month.”
“We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged in November and wage growth to remain anemic,” wrote Zentner. This is in line with the consensus.