From Nomura’s 2012 Global Strategy Outlook:Putting things bluntly, either we have another very serious credit event with consequences at least as severe as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, or stocks are probably a buy.
All of the strategists reluctantly point to an S&P 500 that closes 2012 at a point higher than where it is now.
For the most part, the leading risk identified by most strategists is the eurozone debt crisis, which could potentially blow up into that Lehman Brothers bankruptcy-like crisis.
And even if the world were to avoid that crisis, the global economy still faces austerity across Europe, decelerating growth in China, and policy uncertainty in the U.S. Nevertheless, low valuations would make stocks “probably a buy.”
Anyway, the whole paragraph from which that sentence was taken is worth a read:
Writing ‘outlooks’ for the coming year is never easy, and the current one is less easy than most. In most cases, the outlook is more uncertain the further out one goes, however, the next few days and weeks are especially important, not just in terms of the eventual returns for calendar 2012, but beyond. Two key interconnected issues dominate the investment landscape: first, and most importantly, the outlook for global growth and profits. The tight correlation between the market and earnings since 2004 suggests this aspect is likely to continue to dominate. The second, and closely-related issue, is the risk of a break-up of the euro. Putting things bluntly, either we have another very serious credit event with consequences at least as severe as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, or stocks are probably a buy. Market valuations have moved to levels that, in our view, already partially discount a ‘tail risk’ event.
For the record, Nomura’s Global Equity Strategy team led by Ian Scott sees the S&P 500 ending 2012 at 1,400. Here are some of their assumptions:
- EPS grows 6.0% year-over-year to $103
- 10-year Treasury yield of 2.25%
- GDP grows 2.2% in 2011 and 2.5% in 2012
- CPI rises 1.2% in 2011 and 1.6% in 2012
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.