Surprise: Nomura Just Hiked Its Chinese GDP Forecast

beijing china

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Surprise call of the day.From Nomura:

We are revising our 2012 China GDP growth forecast up to 8.2% from 7.9% for three reasons. First, economic momentum slowed sharply in the first two months of 2012, but was still slightly better than we expected. In particular, fixed asset investments (FAI) grew by 21.5% y-o-y versus our previous estimate of 18% for full Q1. Second, import growth was much lower than we expected (7% in the first two months, versus our full Q1 forecast of 15%), leading to a smaller-than-expected trade deficit. Third, inflation dropped sharply in February, leaving policy makers with room to loosen monetary policy.

So much for the hard landing.

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