NOMURA: Our Asian Manufacturing Index Is Now Plunging For The Second Straight Month

While growth by all accounts in the US remains robust-looking, all is obviously not 100% well in Asia.

A brief note from Nomura emphasises that point

¬†Our leading index, which has a 3-month lead on Asia’s aggregate exports, dropped again from 92.9
to 91.9 in March, after dropping by two points in February. Its rate of decline has steepened, and it
is starting to suggest a year-on-year decline in Asia’s total exports, which has only occurred twice
in the past decade (during the global financial crisis and the dotcom crash).

chart

Photo: Nomura

One thing that may be worth nothing is the composition of the index, which Nomura helpfully offers:

Note: The composite index is comprised of the OECD leading economic index, the US total ISM index and the ISM’s import sub-component index, China’s imports, the Baltic Dry Freight index, US semiconductor global sales, US manufacturers’ new orders of electronic products and the US semi-conductor equipment book-to-bill ratio.

Note the inclusion of the Baltic Dry Index, which has had a spectacular fall due to Europe, but also due to idiosyncratic issues. We’re curious how much is that.

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