Photo: AP/Petros Giannakouris
Nomura’s geopolitical guru Alastair Newton has a new report out on the French election.His basic idea is: Socialist Francois Hollande is the favourite going into the May 6 runoff, but it’s not over yet. Sarkozy can still come back if he strikes that delicate balance allowing him to garner nationalist Le Pen voters, while not alienating too many of the centre. It’s not impossible.
But on May 6, there’s a much bigger election to watch that has bigger implications for markets, and that’s in Greece:
That said, important though it is, the French presidential election outcome may find itself in second place in the 7 May headlines depending on the outcome of the 6 May general election in Greece, which stands to have a much more immediate impact, in our view, on market sentiment over the eurozone if the two main parties there, the New Democrats and PASOK, were to fail to secure a majority.
But that’s not all that’s happening that day…
Italy too will be voting in local and municipal elections on 6/7 May. Although of lesser importance, as we noted in ‘EU: Now is the second summer of our discontent – Act 2’, the outcome could have a negative impact on the cross-party support which Prime Minister Mario Monti needs to continue to pursue his structural reform and fiscal consolidation agenda.
NOW WATCH: Money & Markets videos
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.