Concerned about whether you have enough food in your fridge? How about for the worst case scenario?
Japanese investment bank Nomura produced a research report detailing the countries that would be crushed in a food crisis.
Their description of a food crisis is a prolonged price spike. They calculate the states that have the most to lose by a formula including:
- Nominal GDP per capita in USD at market exchange rates.
- The share of food in total household consumption.
- Net food exports as a percentage of GDP.
We’ve got the top 25 countries in danger here and the list, including a major financial centre, may surprise you.
GDP per capita in USD: $11,246
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 32.6%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $1,051
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 50.7%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.8%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $14,908
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.3%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $3,267
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.8%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.3%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $1,017
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.3%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $3,899
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 61.0%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.9%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $6,546
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.1%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $3,903
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 36.0%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $4,576
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 38.3%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $14,802
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 37.2%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.7%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $991
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 47.6%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.4%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $783
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.8%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.8%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $1,847
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.6%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $9,300
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.4%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $4,714
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 46.1%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.4%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $5,315
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 60.2%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.6%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $30,863
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 25.8%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -4.4%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $1,353
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 52.9%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.3%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $2,013
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.6%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.7%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $1,991
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 48.1%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $6,978
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.0%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.9%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $1,370
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 73.0%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.9%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $4,845
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.0%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.8%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $2,769
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 63.0%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
GDP per capita in USD: $497
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.8%
Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.3%
Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.
Source: Nomura
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