The 25 Countries That Will Be Screwed By A World Food Crisis

venezuela riot

Concerned about whether you have enough food in your fridge? How about for the worst case scenario?

Japanese investment bank Nomura produced a research report detailing the countries that would be crushed in a food crisis.

Their description of a food crisis is a prolonged price spike. They calculate the states that have the most to lose by a formula including:

  • Nominal GDP per capita in USD at market exchange rates.
  • The share of food in total household consumption.
  • Net food exports as a percentage of GDP.

We’ve got the top 25 countries in danger here and the list, including a major financial centre, may surprise you.

#25 Venezuela

GDP per capita in USD: $11,246

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 32.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#24 Vietnam

GDP per capita in USD: $1,051

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 50.7%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.8%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#23 Latvia

GDP per capita in USD: $14,908

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.3%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#22 China

GDP per capita in USD: $3,267

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#21 India

GDP per capita in USD: $1,017

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#20 Ukraine

GDP per capita in USD: $3,899

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 61.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.9%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#19 Bulgaria

GDP per capita in USD: $6,546

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#18 Tunisia

GDP per capita in USD: $3,903

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 36.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#17 Dominican Republic

GDP per capita in USD: $4,576

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 38.3%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#16 Libya

GDP per capita in USD: $14,802

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 37.2%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.7%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#15 Pakistan

GDP per capita in USD: $991

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 47.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.4%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#14 Kenya

GDP per capita in USD: $783

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.8%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#13 Philippines

GDP per capita in USD: $1,847

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#12 Romania

GDP per capita in USD: $9,300

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.4%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#11 Angola

GDP per capita in USD: $4,714

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 46.1%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.4%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#10 Azerbaijan

GDP per capita in USD: $5,315

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 60.2%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.6%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#9 Hong Kong

GDP per capita in USD: $30,863

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 25.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -4.4%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#8 Sudan

GDP per capita in USD: $1,353

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 52.9%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#7 Sri Lanka

GDP per capita in USD: $2,013

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.7%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#6 Egypt

GDP per capita in USD: $1,991

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 48.1%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#5 Lebanon

GDP per capita in USD: $6,978

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.9%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#4 Nigeria

GDP per capita in USD: $1,370

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 73.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.9%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#3 Algeria

GDP per capita in USD: $4,845

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.8%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#2 Morocco

GDP per capita in USD: $2,769

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 63.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#1 Bangladesh

GDP per capita in USD: $497

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

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