Corn and wheat prices surged today. The immediate reason appeared to be the year-end USDA report, that showed supplies were lower than projected.
But concurrent with that report was the release of the Commerce Department’s National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee National Climate Assessment survey.
One of the findings: we can expect up to a century of drought.
Here’s a chart from the report projecting per cent of the country in drought conditions in the coming years.
[credit provider=”Commerce/NOAA” url=”http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-chap2-climate.pdf”]
The red line is based on observed temperature and precipitation. The blue line is from the average of 19 different climate models. The grey lines in the background are individual results from over 70 different simulations from these models.
The projections are derived from the Palmer Drought Severity Index, one of the most widely used measure of drought, the report says.
“These results suggest an increasing probability of drought over this century throughout most of the U.S.,” the committee says. “Droughts have become more frequent and intense in some regions, and confidence is that these trends are projected to continue.”