Niall Ferguson has written an essay for WSJ that imagines life in Europe in 2021, and what happened in the 10 years previous to that.
Because it’s Ferguson, it’s colorfully written, and should be read in whole, but a few key points from it:
- Europe adopts fiscal federalism, allowing it to survive over the long term.
- More crucially, ECB chief Mario Draghi did audacious quantitative easing to end the crisis.
- The Southern European countries trudge on with high unemployment, but life is OK there. Germans have all bought second homes in the periphery, hiring the locals as gardeners.
- Some new Eastern European nations have joined the Eurozone, and become hot-spots for German investment thanks to low taxes.
- The UK public has held a referendum and decided to leave the Euro, which works out great, as it becomes a major destination for Chinese investment.
- The capital of Europe has moved from Brussels to Vienna.